What drives voter support for outsider and anti-establishment candidates?

Presentation of a research project as part of the "Jeudis de la Maison Suger", a residents' research seminar.

This session will be presented by Roberta Picussa, who will reflect on her ongoing research by exploring the factors that lead some Brazilian voters to support outsider and anti-establishment candidates. Drawing on a qualitative study conducted among voters in São Paulo, she highlights the expectations, frustrations and pragmatic logics that shape these electoral choices.

Presentation of the project

"This research examines the factors that shape voters’ attraction to outsider and anti-establishment candidates in Brazil. It seeks to understand whether these candidates’ appeal derives from their political inexperience, their anti-establishment discourse, or the combination of both. The study adopts a qualitative approach based on six focus groups conducted in 2025 with Brazilian voters from São Paulo. The material was analyzed through Categorical Content Analysis, coded in MAXQDA using a codebook developed by the authors. Overall, there is strong demand for new candidates who can offer new solutions and a mandate more connected to the lower-income population. However, the perception that Brazil’s political system is rigid leads to a pragmatic stance, marked by distrust of isolated candidacies and a preference for large parties and alliances capable of ensuring the governability of their candidates."

Speaker

Roberta Picussa is a postdoctoral researcher at the National Institute of Science and Technology in Democratic Representation and Legitimacy (INCT ReDem), based at the Federal University of Paraná, Brazil (UFPR). She holds a PhD in Political Science and an MA in Public Policy. She is the Secretary-General of the Brazilian Institute of Parliamentary Law (PARLA). She has worked at the Legislative Assembly of the State of Paraná, serving for ten years as pedagogical coordinator of the Legislative School, eight years as editor-in-chief of Revista do Legislativo Paranaense, and one year as advisor to the Chair of the Committee on Constitution and Justice.